Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 0.051715 0.058774 0.066669 0.076195 0.087431 0.100330 0.116356
2026-01-11 0.042574 0.051690 0.062751 0.077313 0.096206 0.120210 0.153528
2026-01-18 0.035750 0.045928 0.059183 0.078051 0.104781 0.142185 0.200143
2026-01-25 0.029719 0.040095 0.054475 0.076433 0.110182 0.161984 0.251536
2026-02-01 0.024554 0.034559 0.049202 0.073015 0.112464 0.178568 0.305850
2026-02-08 0.021412 0.031409 0.046848 0.073607 0.121513 0.209667 0.400987
2026-02-15 0.018853 0.028726 0.044751 0.074254 0.131215 0.246352 0.529555
2026-02-22 0.016908 0.026705 0.043385 0.075959 0.143790 0.294880 0.720369
2026-03-01 0.015214 0.024833 0.041948 0.077283 0.156438 0.350670 0.980721
2026-03-08 0.013460 0.022587 0.039446 0.075968 0.163247 0.397185 1.265850
2026-03-15 0.011578 0.019840 0.035546 0.070863 0.159681 0.415421 1.480027
2026-03-22 0.010565 0.018572 0.034335 0.071453 0.171023 0.485624 2.014998
2026-03-29 0.009789 0.017672 0.033770 0.073600 0.188246 0.590537 2.944467
2026-04-05 0.008993 0.016618 0.032709 0.074333 0.202191 0.698015 4.199244
2026-04-12 0.008275 0.015625 0.031615 0.074757 0.215863 0.820435 6.034087
2026-04-19 0.007508 0.014429 0.029866 0.072998 0.221762 0.917050 8.136120
2026-04-26 0.006744 0.013146 0.027713 0.069591 0.220522 0.980022 10.299130
2026-05-03 0.006282 0.012467 0.026911 0.070005 0.234612 1.150541 15.476091
2026-05-10 0.005873 0.011858 0.026185 0.070494 0.249755 1.355092 23.975249
2026-05-17 0.005551 0.011409 0.025794 0.071992 0.270727 1.643535 40.572936
2026-05-24 0.005246 0.010959 0.025330 0.073148 0.291358 1.979503 70.690320
2026-05-31 0.004877 0.010314 0.024239 0.071849 0.299306 2.226515 110.394634
2026-06-07 0.004418 0.009405 0.022299 0.067025 0.286046 2.237160 134.790831